Charlie's Corner

*-What has gotten into the Browns?

It was widely assumed that once Mike Holmgren accepted the job as president of the awful Cleveland Browns that coach Eric Mangini would be looking for employment again this offseason. Yet all of a sudden there is a pulse with the Browns, who have won three games in a row and have covered in their past six – they are now tied with Arizona for the most ATS wins this season at nine. It’s only Cleveland’s third three-game win streak since coming back into the league – the Browns have never won four in their reincarnation. Running back Jerome Harrison has been incredible the past two weeks against the Chiefs and Raiders, rushing for a combined 434 yards and four touchdowns on a whopping 73 carries. His emergence would seem to eliminate the need for using a high draft pick on a running back. Holmgren said Monday that he has not yet decided if Mangini will return as Browns coach next year. Cleveland closes the season against Jacksonville, and a four-game win streak would be a major step forward and some positive momentum for this team heading into 2010.

*-The NFC East champ might be the conference favorite.

Those New Orleans Saints sure don’t look like NFC favorites after losing at home to the Bucs on Sunday for their second home loss in a row. Tampa Bay, a two-touchdown dog, had the fewest wins entering a game (two) of any team to defeat another with at least 13 wins in NFL history. Tampa Bay's 29th-ranked offense outgained New Orleans 250-170 in the second half as the Bucs rallied from a 17-3 halftime deficit. The Saints have now been held to 17 points in each of the last two games, their longest streak of scoring fewer than 20 points since a four-game streak to start the 2007 season. In the first 12 games of the season, the New Orleans offense scored on 60 of its 138 possessions (excluding series on which the Saints were running out the clock). Over the past three contests, that has dropped to 37.0 percent. With Minnesota also looking very shaky of late, the winner of Sunday’s Dallas-Philadelphia game for the NFC East title looks like the de facto top team in the conference. The Cowboys have won two in a row in December for the first time in six years, while the Eagles, who have set a franchise record for points, have won six in a row. Philly also has a shot of passing the Vikings for the No. 2 spot in the NFC.

*-Colts should remember history.

The Indianapolis Colts told everyone they didn’t care about going 16-0 this regular season. And when Indy pulled Peyton Manning and most of the starters in Sunday’s third quarter against the Jets, coach Jim Caldwell made it clear he valued resting his key guys over a run at history, which was lost when  New York rallied to win. However, Indy better beware. Four years ago, the Colts lost after starting the season 13-0 and then shut their starters down mostly for the final two games. The result in the playoffs was a divisional round loss to Pittsburgh. Two years ago the Colts let the scrubs play in a meaningless season finale against Tennessee despite being on a six-game winning streak. The result? A divisional round playoff loss to San Diego. There’s something to be said for going into the playoffs with some momentum, and that’s gone now.

Covering Recommended Number Release, Reinforcement of Money Management

At Inside The Line Sports, when we recommend a team or total to our customers on a game, we are recommending you “trade” on that game – that’s our format, we are not a sportsbook. But that hasn’t stopped some of our clients from asking how our trading format corresponds to betting on a game at an actual sportsbook.

Let’s explain.

When we release a trade and recommend a number, you should buy the trade to that number if at all possible. For example, in the 2010 BCS national championship game between Texas and Alabama, if we were to release Alabama -5.5, which is where it opened at most books, then you should play that number. However, the line has shifted on that game at many books to where it’s now the Tide -4.

But in our system, every time the line moves one point against the recommendation, the value of the money management play reduces our “rating” of the game. So in this example, let’s say we had Alabama -5.5 as a 4-Ratedplay (the highest value on our scale). But with it moving to -4, that drops it to a three-rated play and could see it drop to another category rating with any additional half-point movement toward Texas.

Can you buy Alabama back up to 5.5 and thus return to what we consider a four-rated play? We strongly suggest you never buy anything over a full point on a game – half points are generally 10 cents, full points 20 cents to purchase. Our detailed statistics show that kind of financial risk doesn’t offer full value when balancing risk and reward. You certainly could buy the point at 20 cents and get the Tide back to 5, thus making it a four-rated play again.

The total on the Horns-Tide game has been pretty steady, but if any total (no matter the sport) moves more than three points off our recommended total play, steer clear of that play at a book. But if you are adamant about still playing the new total, keep it at a 1-rated trade.

Sometimes it pays to wait until kickoff or tip off when making these plays and sometimes it doesn’t. But hopefully this shows you how betting at the books and our ITL Sports trading system can co-exist in determining your strategy.

Remember; follow the ITLSports trading guidelines, make trades at the recommended number we release and buy to that point when necessary, and finally -- always manage your portfolio with care. This is a marathon not a sprint, and a proven investment vehicle, but it is only as consistent as you are.  Let's have a great night!

Happy Holidays

ITL Support Team

*-The dogs are back with a vengeance.

Indeed, the underdogs had a huge Week 15 in the NFL. Overall the dogs went 11-4-1, with six winning outright: Dallas over New Orleans, Atlanta over the New York Jets, Cleveland over Kansas City, Oakland over Denver, Tampa Bay over Seattle and Carolina over Minnesota. The only favorites to cover were the New York Giants over the Redskins, Philadelphia over San Francisco, Baltimore over Chicago and Indy over Jacksonville. That Colts-Jaguars game should show you that books are starting to expect the Colts to shut it down because unbeaten Indy went off as just a 3.5-point favorite. The Bears, meanwhile, have covered just once in their past 10 games so they get the worst ATS award this season to date. In games that don’t involve any playoff teams, go with the underdogs this late in the year. They usually are the teams with the worst records but are trying to win to get some momentum for next year or save their jobs. Young teams like Cleveland, which has covered five in a row, Tampa Bay and even Detroit fall into this category. Steer clear of those favorites who might throw in the towel because their playoff hopes are over – veteran teams like Carolina (although not on Sunday), Seattle and San Francisco.  

*-The Saints are flawed.

Saturday night’s loss to Dallas was weeks in coming for the Saints. You can say ATS records have nothing to do with on-field performance, but the Saints have now failed to cover in six of their past eight games and three in a row. The previous two weeks, they were lucky to win at Washington and Atlanta. What has been the trend in recent weeks? No running game. Combined, the Saints’ leading rusher in each of the past three games has totaled 110 yards. That’s not going to get it done, no matter how good Drew Brees is. And if you can get pressure on Brees without blitzing, like Dallas did on Saturday night with DeMarcus Ware, you can keep that offense from going crazy. Brees was 0-for-8 on passes of more than 15 yards against Dallas after having an NFL-best 124.1 rating in the first 13 games on throws of 15 yards or more. The loss to Dallas might be a good thing for New Orleans, which now can figure out what’s wrong and heal up some players with the No. 1 seed in the NFC all but locked down and no 16-0 to shoot for.

*-The Vikings might be more flawed.

Brett Favrehas fallen apart late in recent seasons, and it sure looks like it’s happening again to the future Hall of Famer. The Vikes lost their second road game in a row Sunday as Carolina, a team with nothing to play for, dominated them. Favre threw for 224 yards with no TDs and a pick – he has four interceptions the past three games after having just three in the first 11. Favre hadn’t gone back-to-back games without a 100 rating all season but has done that in the past three weeks. He now has 30 touchdown passes and 50 interceptions in the final five games of the season plus the playoffs since 2005. And of course there was that heated sideline exchange with Minnesota coach Brad Childress, who wanted to pull Favre from Sunday’s game. Is Favre struggling because of Adrian Peterson or vice versa? Peterson hasn't had a 100-yard rushing game in five games. He's averaged 41.0 rushing yards in the Vikings’ three losses this year and 101.1 yards in their 11 wins. What looked like a lock New Orleans-Minnesota NFC title game entering Week 15 now seems very up in the air

Even a few days ago, we would never have recommended taking SMU and the points – currently 14 – against Nevada in the Hawaii Bowl, which also happens to be the only sporting event going on Christmas Eve day or night.

But whereas once Nevada, which finished second in the WAC, had three players with at least 1,000 yards rushing – an NCAA first – now the Wolf Pack are down to just one of that trio and he isn’t even a running back.

Nevada is the nation’s top rushing team, averaging nearly 363 yards per game on the ground to go along with 48 touchdowns. That was split up nicely between running backs Vai Taua, a junior, and Luke Lippincott, a senior, and quarterback Colin Kaepernick. We have known for several weeks that Lippincott, who rushed for 1,034 yards, was going to miss the team’s bowl game with a toe injury. But then the news came down Monday that Taua (1,345 yards) would also sit out because he has been ruled academically ineligible. That just leaves Kaepernick, who rushed for 1,160 yards.

Taua is the best runner of the three, as he had rushed for at least 100 yards in nine games this season and eight in a row. He will be replaced by some combination of sophomore Lampford Mark and freshman Mike Ball – Mark rushed for 286 yards and three touchdowns this year, while Ball rushed for 201 yards and five touchdowns. Ball got the call in a game against UNLV this season when Taua was hurt and Ball put up 184 yards and five touchdowns. So maybe he will be a suitable replacement.

SMU does not have a great rush defense, allowing nearly 170 yards per game. But not having to deal with Taua or Lippincott will allow the Mustangs to focus more on Kaepernick and turn him into a thrower. Kaepernick has attempted more than 24 passes only four times this year, and the Wolf Pack lost three of those. SMU’s pass defense is much better than its rush defense is.

Also take into account that Nevada is just 1-5 under Coach Chris Ault in bowl games and has dropped its past three. It’s tough to gameplan for the Wolf Pack with just a week in between games, but having nearly a month would seem to be a benefit for SMU.

Whatever you do, take the over in this game even though it’s currently at 72.5. While SMU can’t really stop the run, Nevada is second-to-last in college football at stopping the pass, while the Mustangs are a Top 30 passing team under coach June Jones’ fast-paced gun offense. This truly should be the highest-scoring bowl game of the year.

This is also SMU’s first bowl game since being hit with the death penalty in 1984, so the Mustangs no doubt will be a little more motivated to win than Nevada, which gets to visit Hawaii every other year.

Most bowl games are about one of two things: 1) motivation or 2) starting to play for 2010. Either one of those can crush any of those individual bowl bets you make or your Bowl Confidence Pool. That’s because some teams really don’t want to be playing in the bowl they are in. Meanwhile, some coaches want to get an early head start on spring ball and will get a look at some unproven young players in the bowl games – not that these coaches warn you about such moves beforehand. With that said, here are a few teams I would avoid in these pre-Christmas bowls this year (check back for the later bowls):

Oregon State:

The Beavers play BYU in the Las Vegas Bowl on Tuesday night, and OSU is a 2.5-point favorite. While Las Vegas is a fine vacation destination, you can be sure that Oregon State would much rather be somewhere else. Of course the Beavers played in a Rose Bowl winner-take-all Civil War game with Oregon and lost. That slid OSU all the way to this lower-tier slot. Plus the Beavers don’t even get to play a BCS conference team, although BYU certainly is a top-flight program. Remember, too, that last year Oregon State lost a chance at the Rose Bowl in the season finale to Oregon and then laid an egg in the Sun Bowl with just 3 points (yet won). The only thing on Oregon State’s side is that it has won five bowl games in a row and Coach Mike Riley is 8-0 all-time as a college head coach in bowl games. But winning this game means little to the Beavers, while BYU always likes to make a statement against the Pac-10.

California:

Not to pick on the Pac-10, but here’s another conference team that probably doesn’t want to be where it is – and that’s in Poinsettia Bowl against Utah. Cal seemed to quit in its season finale as it was trashed by Washington. When Cal loses, it does so in style, dropping all four games this season by at least 17 points. Utah, meanwhile, has the nation’s longest bowl winning streak at eight. And the Utes won’t have to deal with one-time Heisman leader Jahvid Best, who was ruled out for this game. The junior running back hasn’t played since suffering a nasty concussion on Nov. 7 against Oregon State. And if you want to do the common opponent thing, Utah lost by a touchdown at Oregon while Cal lost in Eugene by 35. Take the Utes and the 3.5 points.

COLOR COLT CRIMSON

Alabama is a near touchdown favorite in the national championship game for a reason. Texas quarterback Colt McCoy has faced Top 40 passing defenses three times this year, his latest debacle versus Nebraska, and he has two touchdowns and five picks in those games. McCoy has averaged less than 200 yards passing, too, and Alabama is much better defensively than any of the other teams Texas has faced.

AND THERE WAS ONE

It will be sunny day in Philadelphia for college football's final regular season contest at Lincoln Financial on Saturday, and even if either team wanted to throw the football,  the wind will be prohibit any significant success.  Winds are out of the West (sideline to sideline) at 13-18 mph. Backing the opposition of Army has been a good trade for most of the season. The Knights' were 2-7 ATS during their first nine games, but they have covered the spread in their last two. However, the last time Army was ATS successful against Navy was in 2006, where as 19 point underdogs, they loss 26-14. With the spread offense dominating college football this decade, old school fans will enjoy the run heavy focus of these two teams. Army ranks 14th in rushing yards averaging 212.1 yards per game, while Navy ranks 3rd and is averaging 279.7. Throwing the football is an afterthought for both offensive coordinators -- Army ranks 119th and Navy 120th in passing yards.

DETESTABLE - D

There’s very little to like about the Chiefs these days - on either side of the football -  but focus lands squarely on the current player personnel that make up the KC defense. The Chiefs have recorded a league low 17 sacks this season and on most Sunday's the KC defensive line is getting manhandled. Even the offense set record lows in the team's Sunday loss to Denver. KC managed only one drive that didn't result in a 'three and out' in the first half against the Broncos, save the final two minutes. And that drive offered evidence of the true talent for the organizations offense. It took the Chiefs 20 plays to move 65 yards, before settling for a field goal. Matt Cassell finished the game with a 14.6 QB rating.Don't expect any progress from the Chiefs this season or in the near future. The Hunt's have wasted more silver on top defensive draft picks than any team in the league - and the return has been dismal.

SAY IT AIN'T SO JOE

The Atlanta Hawks' Joe Smith won’t be making the trip to Toronto tonight. He’ll stay home for treatment, and Othello Hunter will be activated in his place. It's possible Smith could play Sunday against New Jersey, but it would seem like that’d be an outside shot, perhaps somewhat dependent on what Hunter does against Toronto. Mike Woodson told the Constitution Journal that Marvin Williams could be an option at the "4" behind Al Horford if the Hunter experiment fails. All in all, expect Woodson to continue to preach defense, especially against the high flying Raps. The Hawks have played tough defense without Smith. They held Dallas and Chicago under 40 percent shooting and, if the fourth quarter versus the Bulls hadn’t turned into a game between the backups, the Hawks would have held both teams to their season lows for points scored.

*-Southern Cal has thrown in the towel.

USC coach Pete Carroll was unbeaten in his Trojans coaching career against the Arizona schools, but then a banged-up University of Arizona team went into the Coliseum on Saturday and handed Southern Cal its third loss in five games and second in a row at home -- the first time it has suffered two conference home losses under Carroll. It ended the Wildcats’ seven-game losing streak in the series and got them a Holiday Bowl berth. The Trojans were 47-1 at the Coliseum before last month's loss to Stanford and are out of the AP Top 25 for the first time in their past 103 games. Here’s all you need to know about USC’s motivation last weekend and what level it might be in the Emerald Bowl against Boston College. “You could tell the difference," QB Matt Barkley said after the loss to Arizona. "The energy was there in the fourth quarter, but it was almost like it was too late.” And that’s a freshman saying this, not one of the senior leaders. After playing in seven consecutive BCS bowl games, now it’s a lousy game in San Francisco the day after Christmas for USC, which is a 9-point favorite despite having covered just three times all season. We’ll find out if Carroll still has this time, but it sure doesn’t look like it.

*-Alabama exposed Florida holes.

All season long we pointed out how Florida was winning ugly. The Gators failed to cover in four of their final five SEC games and then were thoroughly taken apart by Alabama in the SEC title game. If you remember the 2008 SEC title game, Florida struggled mightily without an injured Percy Harvin but then was able to pull it out in the fourth quarter. This year not having Harvin showed for the entire 60 minutes. Entering Saturday’s game, UF had scored touchdowns only 49 percent of the time on their red-zone trips (28-of-57). Against the Tide, the Gators ventured inside Alabama's 20 three times and came away with three points and two turnovers. The Tide weren’t afraid of any of Florida’s receivers, and UF's only threat on the ground was quarterback Tim Tebow. Tailbacks Jeff Demps and Chris Rainey combined for only three carries against Alabama. Yet oddsmakers are playing on your perception that Florida is still a championship-caliber team: It is a 10-point Sugar Bowl favorite against unbeaten Cincinnati. But, really, how motivated do you think the Gators will be in this one? Try to remember what happened to disappointed Alabama last year against an unbeaten non-BCS team in the Sugar Bowl.

*-Cincinnati can’t stop anyone.

What has happened to the Bearcats’ defense? UC has allowed 146 points in the past four games. UConn put up 462 yards, West Virginia had 390, Illinois rolled up 476 yards and Pitt had 369. The problem might be more on the offensive side, however. That’s because UC ranks last in Division I-A in time of possession, so that defense is on the field nearly 34 minutes a game. And that unit lost10 starters from last year’s team while also switching to from a 4-3 to a 3-4 in the offseason. The Gators rank 12th in the nation in total offense (442.4) and 13th in scoring (34.7), and their defense isn’t going to let UC score at will like it has been. The over 56 total is looking pretty good here.

ACC Championship Game - Raymond James Stadium - Tampa, FL

The Yellow Jackets and Tigers are the top two scoring teams in the conference. Tech is second in the nation in rushing at 305 yards per game, and Clemson's offense features ACC player of the year C.J. Spiller. However, this contest is a rematch from Sept.10 for the ACC championship, where Georgia Tech prevailed late 30-27 at home, and Clemson will have a significant edge defensively having faced the GT triple-option already this season.

Clemson is finally living up to expectations, winning seven of last eight contests with much of the credit going to an improved defense. The Tigers stop unit is No. 1 in total defense in the ACC and 14th nationally.

The Tigers are 44-22 to the UNDER when playing against a team with a winning record on the season; 23-8 to the UNDER against teams with a winning percentage of .750 or better;  23-9 to the UNDER versus teams that outscore their opponents by 10-plus points per game 10+ PPG; and 12-3 to the UNDER in games played on a neutral field.